Effect of Population Partitioning on the Probability of Silent Circulation of Poliovirus.

Celeste Vallejo ORCID logo; Carl AB Pearson ORCID logo; James S Koopman; Thomas J Hladish; (2022) Effect of Population Partitioning on the Probability of Silent Circulation of Poliovirus. Bulletin of mathematical biology, 84 (6). 62-. ISSN 0092-8240 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-022-01014-6
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Polio can circulate unobserved in regions that are challenging to monitor. To assess the probability of silent circulation, simulation models can be used to understand transmission dynamics when detection is unreliable. Model assumptions, however, impact the estimated probability of silent circulation. Here, we examine the impact of having distinct populations, rather than a single well-mixed population, with a discrete-individual model including environmental surveillance. We show that partitioning a well-mixed population into networks of distinct communities may result in a higher probability of silent circulation as a result of the time it takes for the detection of a circulation event. Population structure should be considered when assessing polio control in a region with many loosely interacting communities.


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