Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February.

Daniel J Grint ORCID logo; Kevin Wing ORCID logo; Elizabeth Williamson ORCID logo; Helen I McDonald ORCID logo; Krishnan Bhaskaran ORCID logo; David Evans; Stephen Jw Evans ORCID logo; Alex J Walker; George Hickman; Emily Nightingale ORCID logo; +26 more... Anna Schultze ORCID logo; Christopher T Rentsch ORCID logo; Chris Bates; Jonathan Cockburn; Helen J Curtis; Caroline E Morton; Sebastian Bacon; Simon Davy; Angel Ys Wong ORCID logo; Amir Mehrkar; Laurie Tomlinson ORCID logo; Ian J Douglas ORCID logo; Rohini Mathur ORCID logo; Paula Blomquist; Brian MacKenna; Peter Ingelsby; Richard Croker; John Parry; Frank Hester; Sam Harper; Nicholas J DeVito; Will Hulme; John Tazare ORCID logo; Ben Goldacre ORCID logo; Liam Smeeth ORCID logo; Rosalind M Eggo ORCID logo; (2021) Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February. Eurosurveillance, 26 (11). pp. 10-15. ISSN 1025-7917 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.11.2100256
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The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34-2.09; p < 0.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28 days increased with age and comorbidities. This VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.


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