Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
;
Sam Abbott;
Rosanna C Barnard;
Christopher I Jarvis;
Adam J Kucharski ;
James D Munday ;
Carl AB Pearson;
Timothy W Russell ;
Damien C Tully ;
Alex D Washburne;
+13 more...
Tom Wenseleers;
Amy Gimma;
William Waites;
Kerry LM Wong;
Kevin van Zandvoort ;
Justin D Silverman;
Karla Diaz-Ordaz ;
Ruth Keogh;
Rosalind M Eggo ;
Sebastian Funk ;
Mark Jit ;
Katherine E Atkins ;
W John Edmunds ;
(2020)
Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.
MedRxiv.
DOI: 10.1101/2020.12.24.20248822
<jats:p>A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and is rapidly spreading towards fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modelling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43–90% (range of 95% credible intervals 38–130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine roll-out, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths across England in 2021 will exceed those in 2020. Concerningly, VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59–74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.</jats:p>
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