Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.
Thibaut Jombart 
;
Kevin van Zandvoort ;
Timothy W Russell ;
Christopher I Jarvis ;
Amy Gimma ;
Sam Abbott ;
Sam Clifford ;
Sebastian Funk ;
Hamish Gibbs;
Yang Liu ;
+6 more...
Carl AB Pearson;
Nikos I Bosse;
Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV;
Rosalind M Eggo ;
Adam J Kucharski ;
W John Edmunds ;
(2020)
Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.
Wellcome open research, 5.
78-.
DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1
;
Kevin van Zandvoort ;
Timothy W Russell ;
Christopher I Jarvis ;
Amy Gimma ;
Sam Abbott ;
Sam Clifford ;
Sebastian Funk ;
Hamish Gibbs;
Yang Liu ;
+6 more...
Carl AB Pearson;
Nikos I Bosse;
Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV;
Rosalind M Eggo ;
Adam J Kucharski ;
W John Edmunds ;
(2020)
Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.
Wellcome open research, 5.
78-.
DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1
We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.
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