Effect of Brazil's conditional cash transfer programme on tuberculosis incidence.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the Brazilian cash transfer programme (Bolsa Família Programme, BFP) on tuberculosis (TB) incidence in Brazil from 2004 to 2012. DESIGN: We studied tuberculosis surveillance data using a combination of an ecological multiple-group and time-trend design covering 2458 Brazilian municipalities. The main independent variable was BFP coverage and the outcome was the TB incidence rate. All study variables were obtained from national databases. We used fixed-effects negative binomial models for panel data adjusted for selected covariates and a variable representing time. RESULTS: After controlling for covariates, TB incidence rates were significantly reduced in municipalities with high BFP coverage compared with those with low and intermediate coverage (in a model with a time variable incidence rate ratio = 0.96, 95%CI 0.93-0.99). CONCLUSION: This was the first evidence of a statistically significant association between the increase in cash transfer programme coverage and a reduction in TB incidence rate. Our findings provide support for social protection interventions for tackling TB worldwide.