Health Impacts of Catastrophic Climate Change: Expert Workshop. Avoid Dangerous Climate Change (AVOID)

Climate change is likely to have serious and significant impacts on human population health. The mechanisms by which climate change may affect health are becoming better understood. Current quantitative methods of estimating future health impacts rely on disease-specific models that primarily describe relationships between mean values of weather variables and health outcomes and do not address the impacts of extreme events or weather disasters. Extreme events have the potential to disrupt community function, which is of concern for decision-makers. Estimating the magnitude and extent of impacts from low probability high impact events is challenging because there is often no analogue that can provide relevant evidence and that take into account the complexity of factors determining future vulnerability and health impacts (the social determinants of health).