Predictability of the UK variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic.
JN d'Aignaux;
SN Cousens
;
PG Smith
;
(2001)
Predictability of the UK variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic.
Science (New York, NY), 294 (5547).
pp. 1729-1731.
ISSN 0036-8075
DOI: 10.1126/science.1064748
Back-calculation analysis of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic in the United Kingdom is used to estimate the number of infected individuals and future disease incidence. The model assumes a hazard of infection proportional to the incidence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in the United Kingdom and accounts for precautionary control measures and very wide ranges of incubation periods. The model indicates that current case data are compatible with numbers of infections ranging from a few hundred to several millions. In the latter case, the model suggests that the mean incubation period must be well beyond the human life-span, resulting in disease epidemics of at most several thousand cases.
Item Type | Article |
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Keywords | Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Age Factors, Age of Onset, Animal, Cattle, Child, Child, Preschool, Creutzfeldt-Jakob Syndrome/*epidemiology/genetics/transmission, Diet, Disease Susceptibility, Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform/epidemiology, Genotype, Great Britain/epidemiology, Human, Incidence, Infant, Likelihood Functions, Methionine/genetics, Mice, Models, Biological, Prevalence, Prions/administration & dosage/genetics, Support, Non-U.S. Gov't, Variation (Genetics)/*genetics, Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Age Factors, Age of Onset, Animal, Cattle, Child, Child, Preschool, Creutzfeldt-Jakob Syndrome, epidemiology, genetics, transmission, Diet, Disease Susceptibility, Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform, epidemiology, Genotype, Great Britain, epidemiology, Human, Incidence, Infant, Likelihood Functions, Methionine, genetics, Mice, Models, Biological, Prevalence, Prions, administration & dosage, genetics, Support, Non-U.S. Gov't, Variation (Genetics), genetics |
ISI | 172307400048 |
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8970-2305
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0080-7560