Estimates of provincial fertility and mortality in South Africa, 1985-1996

This paper presents estimates of South African provincial child and adult mortality, and fertility for 1986 to 1996. Fertility and child mortality rates are derived using data from the 1996 census adjusted where necessary using information from the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey. Adult mortality rates for 1996 were produced using the vital registration data in combination with the population data from the 1996 census and completeness of the registration of child deaths. These estimates suggest that the national total fertility rate fell from 3.67 in 1986 to 3.29 in 1996 and ranged between 2.63 to 4.01 for the individual provinces in 1996. Child mortality (5q0) fell from 73 per 1 000 in 1986 to 57 per 1 000 in 1992 before increasing to 70 per 1 000 by 1996, and ranged between 40 and 95 for individual provinces in 1996. Life expectancy at birth in 1996 was 57 years for males (ranging from 53 to 61.5 for individual provinces) and 65 for females (ranging from 62 to 69 for individual provinces).