Local progression among men with conservatively treated localized prostate cancer: results from the Transatlantic Prostate Group.

OBJECTIVES: Men with clinically detected localized prostate cancer treated without curative intent are at risk of complications from local tumor growth. We investigated rates of local progression and need for local therapy among such men. METHODS: Men diagnosed with prostate cancer during 1990-1996 were identified from cancer registries throughout the United Kingdom. Inclusion criteria were age < or =76 yr at diagnosis, PSA level < or =100 ng/ml, and, within 6 mo after diagnosis, no radiation therapy, radical prostatectomy, evidence of metastatic disease, or death. Local progression was defined as increase in clinical stage from T1/2 to T3/T4 disease, T3 to T4 disease, and/or need for transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) to relieve symptoms >6 mo after cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: The study included 2333 men with median follow-up of 85 mo (range: 6-174). Diagnosis was by TURP in 1255 men (54%), needle biopsy in 1039 (45%), and unspecified in 39 (2%). Only 29% were treated with hormonal therapy within 6 mo of diagnosis. Local progression occurred in 335 men, including 212 undergoing TURP. Factors most predictive of local progression on multivariable analysis were PSA at diagnosis and Gleason score of the diagnostic tissue (detrimental), and early hormonal therapy (protective). We present a nomogram that predicts the likelihood of local progression within 120 mo after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Men with clinically detected localized prostate cancer managed without curative intent have an approximately 15% risk for local progression within 10 yr of diagnosis. Among those with progression, the need for treatment is common, even among men diagnosed by TURP. When counseling men who are candidates for management without curative intent, the likelihood of symptoms from local progression must be considered.