Effects of modernisation on desired fertility in Egypt

Using a conceptual framework that borrows notions both from the economic theory of fertility and social interaction theory, this paper assesses the relative importance of social and economic modernisation at the individual and community level in explaining geographical differentials in desired fertility in Egypt. Using the 2000 Egyptian Demographic Health Survey and an up-to-date map of land cover in Egypt, this paper provides an application of an advanced methodology which uses a combination of multilevel modelling and geographical information system (GIS) techniques. The paper shows how GIS techniques facilitate the construction of several variables representing the level of economic modernisation, such as land use, road density and urbanisation. It illustrates how GIS techniques and multilevel modelling can help us to move forward a step in substantiating theories of community influences on fertility. This study also analyses the effect of current family composition on desired fertility in Egypt and reveals the desire of Egyptian society to have at least two children and at least one boy. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.