Population-level effect of potential HSV2 prophylactic vaccines on HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa.

Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV2) infection increases HIV transmission. We explore the impact of a potential prophylactic HSV2 vaccination on HIV incidence in Africa using STDSIM an individual-based model. A campaign that achieved 70% coverage over 5 years with a vaccine that reduced susceptibility to HSV2 acquisition and HSV2 reactivation by 75% for 10 years, reduced HIV incidence by 30-40% after 20 years (range 4-66%). Over 20 years, in most scenarios fewer than 100 vaccinations were required to avert one HIV infection. HSV2 vaccines could have a substantial impact on HIV incidence. Intensified efforts are needed to develop an effective HSV2 vaccine.