Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data
;
Vincent Were;
Emelda A Okiro ;
Ivy K Kombe;
Caroline Mburu;
Rabia Aziza ;
Morris Ogero ;
Ambrose Agweyu ;
George M Warimwe ;
+16 more...
Sophie Uyoga ;
Ifedayo MO Adetifa ;
J Anthony G Scott ;
Edward Otieno ;
Lynette I Ochola-Oyier;
Charles N Agoti ;
Kadondi Kasera;
Patrick Amoth;
Mercy Mwangangi;
Rashid Aman;
Wangari Ng’ang’a;
Benjamin Tsofa ;
Philip Bejon ;
Edwine Barasa;
Matt J Keeling ;
D James Nokes ;
(2022)
Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data.
Wellcome Open Research, 6.
p. 127.
ISSN 2398-502X
DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3
<ns3:p>Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.</ns3:p>
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