Factors predicting amoxicillin prescribing in primary care among children: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic prescribing during childhood, most commonly for respiratory tract infections (RTIs), contributes to antimicrobial resistance, which is a major public health concern. AIM: To identify factors associated with amoxicillin prescribing and RTI consultation attendance in young children in primary care. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cohort study in Bradford spanning pregnancy to age 24 months, collected 2007-2013, linked to electronic primary care and air pollution data. METHOD: Amoxicillin prescribing and RTI consultation rates/1000 child-years were calculated. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were fitted with general practice (GP) surgery as the random effect. RESULTS: The amoxicillin prescribing rate among 2493 children was 710/1000 child-years during year 1 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 677 to 744) and 780/1000 (95% CI = 745 to 816) during year 2. During year 1, odds of amoxicillin prescribing were higher for boys (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.36, 95% CI = 1.14 to 1.61), infants from socioeconomically deprived households (aOR 1.36, 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.86), and infants with a Pakistani ethnic background (with mothers born in the UK [aOR 1.44, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.94] and outside [aOR 1.42, 95% CI = 1.07 to 1.90]). During year 2, odds of amoxicillin prescribing were higher for infants with a Pakistani ethnic background (with mothers born in the UK [aOR 1.46, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.94] and outside [aOR 1.56, 95% CI = 1.19 to 2.04]) and those born <39 weeks gestation (aOR 1.20, 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.45). Additional risk factors included caesarean delivery, congenital anomalies, overcrowding, birth season, and childcare attendance, with GP surgery explaining 7%-9% of variation. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic status and ethnic background were associated with amoxicillin prescribing during childhood. Efforts to reduce RTI spread in household and childcare settings may reduce antibiotic prescribing in primary care.