Modelling the geographical spread of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China: a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis.

Fengshi Jing ORCID logo; Yang Ye ORCID logo; Yi Zhou; Hanchu Zhou ORCID logo; Zhongzhi Xu ORCID logo; Ying Lu; Xiaoyu Tao; Shujuan Yang; Weibin Cheng ORCID logo; Junzhang Tian; +2 more... Weiming Tang ORCID logo; Dan Wu ORCID logo; (2022) Modelling the geographical spread of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China: a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 380 (2214). 20210126-. ISSN 1364-503X DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0126
Copy

Men who have sex with men (MSM) make up the majority of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses among young people in China. Understanding HIV transmission dynamics among the MSM population is, therefore, crucial for the control and prevention of HIV infections, especially for some newly reported genotypes of HIV. This study presents a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to investigate the geographical spread of a hypothetically new genotype of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China. We use multiple data sources to construct this model to characterize the behavioural dynamics underlying the spread of HIV within and between 21 prefecture-level cities (i.e. Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, etc.) in Guangdong province: the online social network via a gay social networking app, the offline human mobility network via the Baidu mobility website, and self-reported sexual behaviours among MSM. Results show that PrEP initiation exponentially delays the occurrence of the virus for the rest of the cities transmitted from the initial outbreak city; hubs on the movement network, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan are at a higher risk of 'earliest' exposure to the new HIV genotype; most cities acquire the virus directly from the initial outbreak city while others acquire the virus from cities that are not initial outbreak locations and have relatively high betweenness centralities, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shantou. This study provides insights in predicting the geographical spread of a new genotype of HIV among an MSM population from different regions and assessing the importance of prefecture-level cities in the control and prevention of HIV in Guangdong province. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approach to infectious disease surveillance'.


picture_as_pdf
Modelling the geographical spread of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-.pdf
subject
Published Version
Available under Creative Commons: 4.0

View Download

Atom BibTeX OpenURL ContextObject in Span Multiline CSV OpenURL ContextObject Dublin Core Dublin Core MPEG-21 DIDL EndNote HTML Citation JSON MARC (ASCII) MARC (ISO 2709) METS MODS RDF+N3 RDF+N-Triples RDF+XML RIOXX2 XML Reference Manager Refer Simple Metadata ASCII Citation EP3 XML
Export

Downloads