COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya.
;
John Ojal ;
Rabia Aziza ;
Vincent Were ;
Emelda A Okiro ;
Ivy K Kombe ;
Caroline Mburu ;
Morris Ogero ;
Ambrose Agweyu ;
George M Warimwe ;
+23 more...
James Nyagwange ;
Henry Karanja ;
John NGitonga;
Daisy Mugo ;
Sophie Uyoga ;
Ifedayo MO Adetifa ;
J Anthony G Scott ;
Edward Otieno ;
NicksonMurunga;
Mark Otiende ;
Lynette I Ochola-Oyier ;
Charles NAgoti;
GeorgeGithinji;
Kadondi Kasera ;
Patrick Amoth ;
MercyMwangangi;
RashidAman;
Wangari Ng'ang'a ;
Benjamin Tsofa ;
PhilipBejon;
Matt J Keeling ;
D James Nokes ;
Edwine Barasa ;
(2021)
COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya.
Science (New York, N.Y.), 374 (6570).
pp. 989-994.
ISSN 0036-8075
DOI: 10.1126/science.abk0414
Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or infection spreads to susceptible subpopulations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socioeconomic and urban–rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.
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