A re-examination of the SPYRAL HTN-OFF MED Pivotal trial with respect to the underlying model assumptions

Background: The SPYRAL HTN-OFF MED Pivotal trial demonstrated that RDN was efficacious compared to a sham control. The underlying model was an extension of the analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) model, adjusted for baseline blood pressure (BP), and allowed borrowing of information from the previously reported feasibility study using a novel Bayesian method. Fundamental to the estimation of a treatment effect for efficacy are a multitude of statistical modelling assumptions, including the role of outliers, linearity of the association between baseline BP and outcome, and parallelism of the treatment effect difference over the baseline BP range. In this report, we examine the validity of these assumptions to verify the robustness of the treatment effect measured. Methods: We examined the requisite modelling assumptions of the ANCOVA model fitted to the SPYRAL HTN-OFF MED Pivotal trial using Bayesian methods. To address outliers, we fit a robust regression model (with heavy tailed errors) to the data with diffuse weakly informative prior distributions on the parameters. To address linearity, we replaced the linear baseline term by a natural spline term with 4 degrees of freedom. To address parallelism, we refit the ANCOVA model with an interaction term for treatment arm and baseline BP. Results: ANCOVA models were fitted to the trial data (pooled across the feasibility and pivotal cohorts) using Bayesian methodology with diffuse (non-informative) prior distributions. The modelling assumptions inherent to the ANCOVA models were shown to be broadly satisfied. A robust ANCOVA model yielded a posterior treatment effect of -4.1 mmHg (95% credible interval: -6.3 to -1.9) indicating the influence of outlier values was small. There was moderate evidence of an interaction term effect between baseline BP and treatment, but no evidence of gross violation of linearity in baseline BP. Conclusion: The posterior treatment effect estimate is shown to be robust to underlying model assumptions, thus further supporting the evidence of RDN to be an efficacious treatment for resistant hypertension.