Revealing the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data
;
Samuel PC Brand ;
Vincent Were ;
Emelda A Okiro ;
Ivy K Kombe ;
Caroline Mburu ;
Rabia Aziza ;
Morris Ogero ;
Ambrose Agweyu ;
George M Warimwe ;
+16 more...
Sophie Uyoga ;
Ifedayo MO Adetifa ;
J Anthony G Scott ;
Edward Otieno ;
Lynette I Ochola-Oyier ;
Charles N Agoti ;
Kadondi Kasera;
Patrick Amoth;
Mercy Mwangangi;
Rashid Aman;
Wangari Ng’ang’a ;
Benjamin Tsofa ;
Philip Bejon ;
Edwine Barasa ;
Matt J Keeling ;
D James Nokes ;
(2020)
Revealing the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data.
medrxiv.
DOI: 10.1101/2020.09.02.20186817
(Submitted)
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Policy makers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. Data suitable for this purpose are scant. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya. We estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 34 - 41% of residents infected, and will peak elsewhere in the country within 2-3 months. Despite this penetration, reported severe cases and deaths are low. Our analysis suggests the COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya may be far less than initially feared. A similar scenario across sub-Saharan Africa would have implications for balancing the consequences of restrictions with those of COVID-19.</jats:p>
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picture_as_pdf - First_wave_paper.pdf
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subject - Submitted Version
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- Available under Creative Commons: NC-ND 3.0