Effectiveness of primary care gatekeeping: difference-in-differences evaluation of a pilot scheme in China.

INTRODUCTION: This paper evaluates the effectiveness of a gatekeeping pilot in shifting resources and patient visits from hospitals to primary care facilities under the Chinese New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme. METHODS: We applied a difference-in-differences regression analysis using claims data from a pilot district in northern China. The study covered 200 685 enrollees in 17 townships in 2012 and followed-up the townships over 12 year-quarters until the end of 2014. RESULTS: The gatekeeping pilot led to significantly more patients visiting primary care facilities (55.3%, p=0.001), but there was little evidence of increased ambulatory spending on primary care (1.6%, p=0.884). The pilot reduced hospital visits by 23.9% (p=0.048) and ambulatory spending at the hospitals by 22.4% (p=0.011). CONCLUSIONS: This first impact evaluation of gatekeeping outside high-income countries found that gatekeeping policy did not seem to have expanded the care provided by primary care facilities, despite an increased volume of claimed visits. Although claimed patient visits and expenditure at hospitals reduced, we suspect this may have been because patients found it either cumbersome or difficult to obtain reimbursement for their care.