Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.
;
Ingra M Claro ;
Jaqueline G de Jesus ;
William M Souza ;
Filipe RR Moreira ;
Simon Dellicour ;
Thomas A Mellan ;
Louis du Plessis ;
Rafael HM Pereira ;
Flavia CS Sales ;
+69 more...
Erika R Manuli ;
Julien Thézé ;
Luiz Almeida ;
Mariane T Menezes ;
Carolina M Voloch ;
Marcilio J Fumagalli ;
Thaís M Coletti ;
Camila AM da Silva ;
Mariana S Ramundo ;
Mariene R Amorim ;
Henrique H Hoeltgebaum ;
Swapnil Mishra ;
Mandev S Gill ;
Luiz M Carvalho ;
Lewis F Buss ;
Carlos A Prete ;
Jordan Ashworth ;
Helder I Nakaya ;
Pedro S Peixoto ;
Oliver J Brady ;
Samuel M Nicholls ;
Amilcar Tanuri ;
Átila D Rossi ;
Carlos KV Braga ;
Alexandra L Gerber ;
Ana Paula de C Guimarães ;
Nelson Gaburo;
Cecila Salete Alencar ;
Alessandro CS Ferreira ;
Cristiano X Lima ;
José Eduardo Levi ;
Celso Granato;
Giulia M Ferreira ;
Ronaldo S Francisco ;
Fabiana Granja ;
Marcia T Garcia ;
Maria Luiza Moretti;
Mauricio W Perroud ;
Terezinha MPP Castiñeiras ;
Carolina S Lazari;
Sarah C Hill;
Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos;
Camila L Simeoni ;
Julia Forato ;
Andrei C Sposito ;
Angelica Z Schreiber ;
Magnun NN Santos;
Camila Zolini de Sá ;
Renan P Souza ;
Luciana C Resende-Moreira ;
Mauro M Teixeira ;
Josy Hubner ;
Patricia AF Leme ;
Rennan G Moreira ;
Maurício L Nogueira ;
Brazil-UK Centre for Arbovirus Discovery, Diagnosis, Genomics an;
Neil M Ferguson ;
Silvia F Costa ;
José Luiz Proenca-Modena ;
Ana Tereza R Vasconcelos ;
Samir Bhatt ;
Philippe Lemey ;
Chieh-Hsi Wu ;
Andrew Rambaut ;
Nick J Loman ;
Renato S Aguiar ;
Oliver G Pybus ;
Ester C Sabino ;
Nuno Rodrigues Faria ;
(2020)
Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.
Science, 369 (6508).
pp. 1255-1260.
ISSN 0036-8075
DOI: 10.1126/science.abd2161
Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.
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