Only strict quarantine measures can curb the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Italy, 2020.

Henrik Sjödin; Annelies Wilder-Smith ORCID logo; Sarah Osman; Zia Farooq; Joacim Rocklöv; (2020) Only strict quarantine measures can curb the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Italy, 2020. Eurosurveillance, 25 (13). ISSN 1560-7917 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.13.2000280
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Several Italian towns are under lockdown to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. The level of transmission reduction required for physical distancing interventions to mitigate the epidemic is a crucial question. We show that very high adherence to community quarantine (total stay-home policy) and a small household size is necessary for curbing the outbreak in a locked-down town. The larger the household size and amount of time in the public, the longer the lockdown period needed.


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