Change of mammographic density predicts the risk of contralateral breast cancer--a case-control study.

INTRODUCTION: Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer, but it is unknown whether density at first breast cancer diagnosis and changes during follow-up influences risk of non-simultaneous contralateral breast cancer (CBC). METHODS: We collected mammograms for CBC-patients (cases, N = 211) and unilateral breast cancer patients (controls, N = 211), individually matched on age and calendar period of first breast cancer diagnosis, type of adjuvant therapy and length of follow-up (mean follow-up time: 8.25 years). The odds of CBC as a function of changes of density during follow-up were investigated using conditional logistic regression, adjusting for non-dense area at diagnosis. RESULTS: Patients who experienced ≥10% absolute decrease in percent density had a 55% decreased odds of CBC (OR = 0.45 95% CI: 0.24 to 0.84) relative to patients who had little or no change in density from baseline to first follow-up mammogram (mean = 1.6 (SD = 0.6) years after diagnosis), whereas among those who experienced an absolute increase in percent density we could not detect any effect on the odds of CBC (OR = 0.83 95% CI: 0.24 to 2.87). CONCLUSION: Decrease of mammographic density within the first two years after first diagnosis is associated with a significantly reduced risk of CBC, this potential new risk predictor can thus contribute to decision-making in follow-up strategies and treatment.