The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue.

Jane P Messina ORCID logo; Oliver J Brady ORCID logo; Nick Golding ORCID logo; Moritz UG Kraemer ORCID logo; GR William Wint; Sarah E Ray; David M Pigott; Freya M Shearer; Kimberly Johnson; Lucas Earl; +10 more... Laurie B Marczak; Shreya Shirude; Nicole Davis Weaver ORCID logo; Marius Gilbert; Raman Velayudhan; Peter Jones; Thomas Jaenisch; Thomas W Scott; Robert C Reiner; Simon I Hay ORCID logo; (2019) The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue. Nature microbiology, 4 (9). pp. 1508-1515. ISSN 2058-5276 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8
Copy

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.


picture_as_pdf
s41564-019-0476-8.pdf
subject
Published Version
Available under Creative Commons: 3.0

View Download

Atom BibTeX OpenURL ContextObject in Span Multiline CSV OpenURL ContextObject Dublin Core Dublin Core MPEG-21 DIDL EndNote HTML Citation JSON MARC (ASCII) MARC (ISO 2709) METS MODS RDF+N3 RDF+N-Triples RDF+XML RIOXX2 XML Reference Manager Refer Simple Metadata ASCII Citation EP3 XML
Export

Downloads