Effects of environmental change on population nutrition and health: A comprehensive framework with a focus on fruits and vegetables.

Environmental changes are likely to affect agricultural production over the next 20-30 years. The interactions between environmental change, agricultural yields and crop quality, and the critical pathways to future diets and health outcomes remain largely undefined. There are currently no quantitative models to test the impact of multiple environmental changes on nutrition and health outcomes. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we developed a framework to link the multiple interactions between environmental change, agricultural productivity and crop quality, population-level food availability, dietary intake and health outcomes, with a specific focus on fruits and vegetables. The main components of the framework consist of: i) socio-economic and societal factors, ii) environmental change stressors, iii) interventions and policies, iv) food system activities, v) food and nutrition security, and vi) health and well-being outcomes. The framework, based on currently available evidence, provides an overview of the multidimensional and complex interactions between environmental change, diets and health, and forms the analytical baseline for future modelling and scenario testing. The framework identifies the inter-sectoral datasets and models that need to be defined and populated to assess the impacts of environmental change on agricultural production, food availability, nutrition and population health.