Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone1.

Felicity Fitzgerald; Kevin Wing ORCID logo; Asad Naveed; Musa Gbessay; JCG Ross; Francesco Checchi ORCID logo; Daniel Youkee; Mohamed Boie Jalloh; David E Baion; Ayeshatu Mustapha; +11 more... Hawanatu Jah; Sandra Lako; Shefali Oza; Sabah Boufkhed; Reynold Feury; Julia Bielicki; Elizabeth Williamson ORCID logo; Diana M Gibb; Nigel Klein; Foday Sahr; Shunmay Yeung ORCID logo; (2018) Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone1. Emerging infectious diseases, 24 (2). pp. 311-319. ISSN 1080-6040 DOI: 10.3201/eid2402.171018
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We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.


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