Incidence of major smoking-related cancers: trends among adults aged 20-44 in France from 1982 to 2012.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco is currently the largest risk factor for cancers of the lung, lip/oral cavity/pharynx (LOCP) and esophagus. Variations in tobacco consumption over time have led to changes in cancer incidence in the general population. Data on the incidence of cancers at these sites in adults aged 20-44 years old are scarce. Our objective was to provide estimates of incidence trends for these cancers in France among this age group over the last 30 years. METHODS: Observed incidence data over the period 1982-2010 for the 20-44 age group were provided from six cancer registries (eight for esophagus) covering approximately 6% of the French population. Age-period-cohort models were used on the observed period, and estimates of cancer incidence for France in 2012 were provided on the basis of short-term predictions. RESULTS: In men, a sharp decline was observed over time for LOCP and esophageal cancers, while lung cancer saw only a slight decline. In women, a large increase was seen in lung cancer incidence, while LOCP cancer incidence did not vary significantly. CONCLUSION: Smoking behaviors among adults aged 20-44 impact incidence trends in cancers of the lung, LOCP and esophagus, although other factors are involved, particularly in LOCP and esophageal cancers. Our results highlight the importance of preventative efforts which particularly target women aged 20-44. Efforts to curb tobacco smoking in men should also be pursued.