Reproduction within different population policy environments in rural China 1979-2000

This study uses data from National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey undertaken in 2001, systematic reviews of provincial policy fertility in 1990s, information on the nature of family planning (FP) services at grassroots institutions and a new measure of women's son preference, to advance knowledge of determinants of reproduction in rural China. The main statistical methods in this study include latent class analysis, life table, parity progression ratio, multilevel logistic regression and multilevel Poisson regression. The analysis is performed within groups of provinces according to their population policy (I-child, 1.5-child and 2-child). The results showed that fertility rate was closely related to China's population policy: the stricter the policy, the lower the fertility rate. By the end of the last century, fertility rates for the three types of provinces were close to respective policy fertility, indicating a success of China's population policy. However, strict population policy increased risks of abortion and imbalance in sex ratio at birth (SRB), particularly the rising sex ratio of second births in 1.5-child provinces. Variations in availability of specific FP methods by local services did not play a leading role in reducing fertility level, risk of abortion and imbalanced SRB. Son preference at province or individual level had strong impacts on progression to second birth, risk of abortion, and SRB, but the effects vary between types of provinces. Effects of other individual characteristics, i.e., couples' age, women's education, sex of existing child, on reproduction are also explored and discussed in this study. It can be concluded that strict implementation of population policy was the dominant influence on fertility levels but it also raised risk of abortion and imbalance in SRB in rural China. For these and other reasons, China needs to relax its I-child and 1.5-child policies immediately.