Estimating mortality displacement during and after heat waves.

Ben Armstrong ORCID logo; Antonio Gasparrini ORCID logo; Shakoor Hajat ORCID logo; (2014) Estimating mortality displacement during and after heat waves. American journal of epidemiology, 179 (12). pp. 1405-1406. ISSN 0002-9262 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwu083
Copy

The proportion of excess deaths occurring as a result of hot weather that are brought forward by only a short time ("displaced") is important but not easy to estimate. A recent proposal by Saha et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2014;179(4):467-474) was to estimate this using a "displacement ratio" equal to the sum of deficits of daily deaths below an expected baseline divided by the sum of excesses over all days during and up to 15 days after a heat wave. Unfortunately, this method results in important artifacts due to natural Poisson variation in deaths by which deficits, and hence displacement ratios above zero, will occur even when there is no real short-term displacement. Simulations confirm this and further show spurious patterns, such as the displacement ratio diminishing with more severe waves. This displacement ratio cannot be relied upon for interpretation. Quantifying mortality displacement remains an incompletely resolved problem.

Full text not available from this repository.

Atom BibTeX OpenURL ContextObject in Span Multiline CSV OpenURL ContextObject Dublin Core Dublin Core MPEG-21 DIDL EndNote HTML Citation JSON MARC (ASCII) MARC (ISO 2709) METS MODS RDF+N3 RDF+N-Triples RDF+XML RIOXX2 XML Reference Manager Refer Simple Metadata ASCII Citation EP3 XML
Export

Downloads