Prognostic and surrogate markers for outcome in the treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis

Phase III trials for new tuberculosis treatment regimens require large numbers of participants and can take over five years to complete. A surrogate marker for poor outcome (failure at end of treatment or recurrence following successful treatment), the established endpoint in such trials, could shorten trial duration and reduce trial size. Culture results after two months of treatment have shown the most promise but, prior to this research, no formal evaluation had been performed. In this thesis, culture results during treatment are evaluated as prognostic and surrogate markers for poor outcome using data on 6974 patients from twelve tuberculosis treatment randomised controlled multi-arm trials conducted in East Africa and East Asia. A strong association was found between culture results during treatment and poor outcome. Nevertheless, culture results were not good patient-specific predictors of poor outcome with low sensitivities and specificities. Existing meta-analytic methods for evaluating surrogate markers are not wholly suited to this setting of multi-arm trials with binary true and surrogate endpoints. Extending these methods, the two month culture was found to be a good surrogate marker using data from Hong Kong trials and the three month culture was found to be a good surrogate marker using data from East African trials. These results are an indication that cultures during treatment do capture some of the treatment effect. Further work is needed in understanding the differences between the Hong Kong and East African trials. The meta-analytic methods for evaluating surrogate markers in this thesis included a graphical representation that permitted a clear visual evaluation of the surrogate. Methods developed in this thesis for modelling the relationship between the treatment effects on the true and surrogate endpoints were not satisfactory. The deficiencies were not overcome with the two extensions proposed. Further work is needed in developing a more appropriate model.