The burden of malaria epidemics and cost-effectiveness of interventions in epidemic situations in Africa.

Attempts to quantify the epidemiologic and economic burden of malaria have so far neglected to specifically address the burden of epidemic malaria. Moreover, the data on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions in epidemics is extremely limited. Answering such key questions in an epidemic prone context is more challenging than doing so in endemic areas. Using the limited data available, we estimate that in Africa, there are more than 12 million malaria episodes and 155,000-310,000 malaria deaths per year attributable to epidemics if control options are not implemented or well timed, which is equivalent to some 4% of estimated annual malaria cases worldwide and 12-25% of estimated annual worldwide malaria deaths, including up to 50% of the estimated annual worldwide malaria mortality in persons > 15 years of age. The possible economic impact of malaria epidemics is described and the limited evidence on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions in areas of low or seasonal transmission is reviewed.