Trends in the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanomas in the south east of England, 1960-1998.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to describe the epidemiology of cutaneous malignant melanomas (CMMs) in males and females in the south east of England from 1960 to 1998. Birth cohort effects are important when describing the incidence of CMMs because fashions of dress affect whether different body sites are exposed to sunlight. METHODS: We calculated the age-standardized incidence of all CMMs for 5 year periods from 1960 to 1998 and the age-specific and age-standardized incidence of CMMs at different sites for 5 year periods from 1980 to 1998. We plotted age-specific incidence rates against period of diagnosis and birth cohort. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence of CMMs increased from 1.3 to 7.1 per 100,000 person-years in males. Incidence increased from 2.4 to 7.8 per 100,000 person-years overall in females but levelled in the 1990s. Trunk CMMs had the highest incidence in males and the greatest increase in incidence. Lower limb CMMs had the highest incidence in females but their incidence decreased. The rate of increase of the age-specific incidence of trunk CMMs was greater for male birth cohorts before about 1945. The rate of increase of the incidence of lower limb CMMs was greater for female birth cohorts before about 1920. CONCLUSIONS: If current trends continue, the age-standardized incidence of CMMs in females will remain stable. The increase in the age-standardized incidence of CMMs in males was driven by increases in the age-specific incidence of trunk CMMs in men who were born before about 1949. As they age, age-standardized incidence should level.