The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020.
H Møller;
L Fairley;
V Coupland;
C Okello;
M Green;
D Forman;
B Møller;
F Bray;
(2007)
The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020.
British journal of cancer, 96 (9).
pp. 1484-1488.
ISSN 0007-0920
DOI: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6603746
We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974-2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predicted to increase by 33%, from 224,000 in 2001 to 299,000 cases in 2020. This increase is mainly due to the anticipated effects of population growth and ageing; cancer patients in 2020 will be older than today's cancer population.
Item Type | Article |
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ISI | 246162600028 |
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