The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020.

H Møller; L Fairley; V Coupland; C Okello; M Green; D Forman; B Møller; F Bray; (2007) The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020. British journal of cancer, 96 (9). pp. 1484-1488. ISSN 0007-0920 DOI: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6603746
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We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974-2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predicted to increase by 33%, from 224,000 in 2001 to 299,000 cases in 2020. This increase is mainly due to the anticipated effects of population growth and ageing; cancer patients in 2020 will be older than today's cancer population.


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